Integrating IPAT and CLUMondo Models to Assess the Impact of Carbon Peak on Land Use

Han Wang, Yujie Jin, Xingming Hong, Fuan Tian, Jianxian Wu and Xin Nie
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Han Wang: School of Public Administration, Guangxi University, No. 100, Da Xue Road, Nanning 530004, China
Yujie Jin: School of Public Administration, Guangxi University, No. 100, Da Xue Road, Nanning 530004, China
Xingming Hong: School of Mechanical Engineering, Guangxi University, No. 100, Da Xue Road, Nanning 530004, China
Fuan Tian: School of Public Administration, Guangxi University, No. 100, Da Xue Road, Nanning 530004, China
Xin Nie: School of Public Administration, Guangxi University, No. 100, Da Xue Road, Nanning 530004, China

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 4, 1-16

Abstract: China’s growth plans include a carbon emission peak policy, which is a restriction that indirectly impacts land use structure. In this study, we simulate different paths for achieving policy objectives, and explore the linkages between those paths and land use change. The IPAT model was used to simulate the carbon emissions generated from a natural development scenario, an ideal policy scenario, and a retributive carbon emission scenario in China from 2020 to 2030. The simulation results were incorporated into the CLUMondo model as a demand driver to simulate the land use change in 2030. The results show that carbon emission peak policy can somewhat reduce carbon emissions and increase building land in a regulated way. However, the policy may also lead to a short-term surge in carbon emissions, a reactive expansion of arable land and building land. This may reduce losses in economic development when carbon emissions are limited, but does not achieve the integration of social, economic, and ecological goals. This study links the carbon emission peak policy with land use change and provides a fresh perspective on the Chinese government’s carbon reduction policy.

Keywords: carbon emissions; land use change; scenario analysis; environmental pressure model; land use model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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