Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Future Simulation of Agricultural Land Use in Xiangxi, Central China

Hui Xiang, Yinhua Ma, Rongrong Zhang, Hongji Chen and Qingyuan Yang
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Hui Xiang: School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
Yinhua Ma: School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
Rongrong Zhang: School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
Hongji Chen: School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
Qingyuan Yang: School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 4, 1-16

Abstract: Researches on agricultural land use would help the stakeholders to make better decisions about agricultural resources. However, studies on agricultural land have been lacking. In this context, Xiangxi was chosen as a typical region, and five indicators (Kernel Density, change importance, etc.) and two models (gray forecasting model and GeoSoS-FLUS) were used, to explore the spatio-temporal evolution trends and simulate the future scenarios of agricultural land use. The results were as follows: (1) Xiangxi was dominated by agricultural land, and nearly 50% of total extent was forestry land. Extent of agricultural land decreased by about 56.89 km 2 or 3.74% from 2000 to 2018; (2) The density of each agricultural land in the study area had considerable spatial heterogeneity, and showed a main trend of shrinkage, especially in the south regions; (3) In 2030, the spatial pattern and composition of agricultural land in Xiangxi will maintain the existing status, while both of the area and proportion of agricultural land will decline, with a loss of 241.34 km 2 or 2.85% decrease from 2000. Nevertheless, the study believed that the slight shrinkage of the agricultural land in Xiangxi is in line with the objective law. At the same time, the study suggested to strengthen the scientific management and rational utilization of agricultural land, with emphasis on arable land and fishery land in the south, especially the administrative center.

Keywords: agricultural land; land use change; spatio-temporal evolution; future simulation; Xiangxi (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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