Effect of the Belt and Road Initiatives on Trade and Its Related LUCC and Ecosystem Services of Central Asian Nations

Jian Zhang, Meixia Ren, Xin Lu, Yu Li and Jianjun Cao
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Jian Zhang: College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Meixia Ren: College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Xin Lu: College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Yu Li: School of Chemical Engineering, Northwest Minzu University, Lanzhou 730030, China
Jianjun Cao: College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 6, 1-18

Abstract: Economic development and trade activities are some of the main driving forces leading to land use and land cover changes (LUCC) with impacts on ecosystem services (ESs) functions. As the origin of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) initiated by China, Central Asia nations (CANs) provide a prism to examine the impact of LUCC and ESs changes brought by the BRI. The impacts of LUCC and ecological influences were evaluated. The land use transfer matrix and dynamic index, the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), the Carnegie Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA) model, and the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) model were used to evaluate the impact of export trade from the CANs to China (ETCC) on LUCC and ESs in the CANs before and after the BRI. Results showed that before and after BRI (2001–2020), agricultural land and construction land increased by 59,120 km 2 and 7617 km 2 , respectively, while ecological land decreased by 66,737 km 2 . The annual growth rate of agricultural land and the annual reduction rate of ecological land after the BRI were higher than that before the BRI, while the annual growth rate of construction slowed down. Among the ecological land, the forestland increased by 5828 km 2 continuously, while the grassland increased by 12,719 km 2 and then decreased of 13,132 km 2 . The trends for LUCC spatial variation were similar. The development of ETCC positively affected the changes in agricultural and construction land in the CANs and negatively affected the changes in ecological land. The average contribution rates of the ETCC to changes in agriculture, construction, and ecological lands after the BRI were higher than those before the BRI. They increased by 5.01%, 3.33% and 5.01%, respectively. The ESs after the BRI improved compared with those before the BRI, indicating that, during short-term implementation of the BRI, ETCC growth also ensures the ecological protection of CANs. This study provides a reference for dealing with trade, land management and environmental protection relations between member countries of international economic alliances worldwide.

Keywords: LUCC; economic trade; ecosystem services; Central Asia nations; Belt and Road Initiative (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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