Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Shrinking Cities in China: Evidence from Nighttime Light

Qi Wang, Zhongling Xin and Fangqu Niu
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Qi Wang: School of Law, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048, China
Zhongling Xin: Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Fangqu Niu: Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 6, 1-17

Abstract: Since the 1980s, rapid urbanization in China has been accompanied by city shrinkage. Identifying shrinking cities and clarifying the spatial and temporal patterns are of great significance for formulating policies and realizing smart shrinkage. City shrinkage characterized by population loss is a difficult challenge for urban planning and regional development policy-making. This paper uses 2012–2020 nighttime light (NTL) data to identify the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of shrinking cities in China and excavates the shrinking cities’ trend of agglomeration and dispersion further. The following results are obtained. (1) About 34.9% of prefecture-level cities are shrinking across the country but most severely in northeast and northwest China; (2) the number of shrinking cities fluctuates over time (2015 and 2020 are the peak shrinkage years). Shrinking cities in China show a northeast-to-southwest spatial distribution. (3) From 2012 to 2020, the aggregation degree of shrinkage continuously decreased (Low-Low) and the aggregation degree of growth continuously increased (High-High), indicating that shrinkage in northeast China was slightly alleviated and that the radiative effect of the growth pole was further enhanced. These findings help us better understand the trend of city shrinkage in China. Future work needs to be focused on the potential causes of the shrinkage. Furthermore, long-term trends also need to be investigated.

Keywords: shrinking cities; nighttime light data; urban shrinkage intensity; spatial distribution; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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