Evaluating Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs Based on Land-Use Simulation: A Case Study in the Farming–Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China

Shuting Bai, Jiuchun Yang, Yubo Zhang, Fengqin Yan, Lingxue Yu and Shuwen Zhang
Additional contact information
Shuting Bai: Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China
Jiuchun Yang: Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China
Yubo Zhang: Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China
Fengqin Yan: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Lingxue Yu: Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China
Shuwen Zhang: Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 7, 1-17

Abstract: Evaluating the impacts of land-use change (LUC) on ecosystem services (ESs) is necessary for regional sustainable development, especially for the farming–pastoral ecotone of northern China (FPENC), an ecologically sensitive and fragile region. This study aimed to assess the impacts of LUC on the ESs and provide valuable information for regional planning and management in the FPENC. To accomplish this, we assessed LUC in the FPENC from 2010 to 2020 and simulated land-use patterns in 2030 under three plausible scenarios: the business as usual scenario (BAUS), economic development scenario (EDS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS). Then, we quantified five ESs (including crop production, water yield, soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage) for 2020–2030 and analyzed the trade-offs and synergies among ESs in all scenarios. The results show that FPENC experienced expanding farming land and built-up land throughout 2010–2020. Under the BAUS and EDS from 2000 to 2030, especially EDS, the increase in farming land and built-up land will continue. As a result, crop production and water yield will increase, while soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage will decrease. In contrast, EPS will increase soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage at the cost of a decline in crop production and water yield. These results can provide effective reference information for future regional planning and management in the farming–pastoral ecotone.

Keywords: land-use change; scenario analysis; ecosystem services; trade-off and synergy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/7/1115/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/7/1115/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:7:p:1115-:d:867518

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().