Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Changes with Ecosystem Service Value in the Yellow River Basin

Yuanyuan Lou, Dan Yang, Pengyan Zhang, Ying Zhang, Meiling Song, Yicheng Huang and Wenlong Jing
Additional contact information
Yuanyuan Lou: College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China
Dan Yang: College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China
Pengyan Zhang: College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China
Ying Zhang: College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China
Meiling Song: College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China
Yicheng Huang: College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China
Wenlong Jing: Guangdong Province Engineering Laboratory for Geographic Spatio-temporal Big Data, Key Laboratory of Guangdong for Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System, Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510070, China

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 7, 1-17

Abstract: Land use change plays a crucial role in global environmental change. Understanding the mode and land use change procedure is conducive to improving the quality of the global eco-environment and promoting the harmonized development of human–land relationships. Large river basins play an important role in areal socioeconomic development. The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is an important ecological protective screen, economic zone, and major grain producing area in China, which faces challenges with respect to ecological degradation and water and sediment management. Simulating the alterations in ecosystem service value (ESV) owing to land use change in the YRB under multiple scenarios is of great importance to guaranteeing the ecological security of the basin and improve the regional ESV. According to the land use data of 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2018, the alterations in the land use and ESV in the YRB over the past 30 years were calculated and analyzed on the basis of six land use types: cultivated land, forestland, grassland, water area, built-up land, and unused land. The patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to simulate the land use change in the study area under three scenarios (natural development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection in 2026); estimate the ESV under each scenario; and conduct a comparative analysis. We found that the land use area in the YRB changed significantly during the study period. The ESV of the YRB has slowly increased by ~USD 15 billion over the past 30 years. The ESV obtained under the ecological protection scenario is the highest. The simulation of the YRB’s future land use change, and comparison and analysis of the ESV under different scenarios, provide guidance and a scientific basis for promoting ecological conservation and high-quality development of river basins worldwide.

Keywords: spatiotemporal analysis; PLUS model; scenario simulation; ecosystem service; yellow river basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/7/992/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/7/992/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:7:p:992-:d:851611

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().