The Impact of Urbanization Growth Patterns on Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Evidence from Guizhou, West of China

Canying Zeng, Shaohua Wu, Hua Zhou and Min Cheng
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Canying Zeng: Institute of Land and Urban–Rural Development, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China
Shaohua Wu: Institute of Land and Urban–Rural Development, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China
Hua Zhou: The Key Laboratory of Carbon Neutralization and Land Space Optimization, Nanjing 210008, China
Min Cheng: Institute of Land and Urban–Rural Development, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 8, 1-18

Abstract: Little attention has been paid to the impact of future urban expansion patterns on carbon emissions based on the existing urban pattern of a region. This study used the Central Guizhou Urban Agglomeration as the study area, and the relationships between regional urbanization and CO 2 emissions in the study area were analyzed based on historical data. Urban growth patterns were then simulated in four scenarios that focused on the next 15 years, and they were based on the cellular automaton model. In each different scenario, the CO 2 emissions were predicted, and some implications regarding the impact of those emissions were provided. The results showed that as urban land-use intensity increases, CO 2 emissions first increase then decrease; however, the rate of decline for CO 2 emissions is much slower than the rate at which it rises. Moreover, in the next 15 years, urban expansion will lead to a significant increase in CO 2 emissions. The CO 2 emissions were found to be lowest in the spatial agglomeration scenario and highest in the spatial dispersion scenario. The spatial agglomeration scenario was conducive to understanding how CO 2 emissions eventually peak; however, different cities in the study area should adopt different urban expansion patterns. These research results can provide a reference guide for the government with regard to urban planning.

Keywords: urban growth; CO 2 emission; Guizhou province; urban planning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:8:p:1211-:d:877578

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