Impact of Landscape Management Scenarios on Ecosystem Service Values in Central Ethiopia

Abera Assefa Biratu (), Bobe Bedadi, Solomon Gebreyohannis Gebrehiwot, Assefa M. Melesse, Tilahun Hordofa Nebi, Wuletawu Abera, Lulseged Tamene and Anthony Egeru
Additional contact information
Abera Assefa Biratu: Africa Centre of Excellence for Climate Smart Agriculture and Biodiversity Conservation, Haramaya University, Dire Dawa P.O. Box 138, Ethiopia
Bobe Bedadi: Africa Centre of Excellence for Climate Smart Agriculture and Biodiversity Conservation, Haramaya University, Dire Dawa P.O. Box 138, Ethiopia
Solomon Gebreyohannis Gebrehiwot: Water and Land Resource Center, Ethiopian Institute of Water Resource, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 3880, Ethiopia
Assefa M. Melesse: Department of Earth and Environment, Institute of Environment, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, USA
Tilahun Hordofa Nebi: Melkassa Agricultural Research Center, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Adama P.O. Box 436, Ethiopia
Wuletawu Abera: International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Addis Ababa P.O. Box 5689, Ethiopia
Lulseged Tamene: International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Addis Ababa P.O. Box 5689, Ethiopia
Anthony Egeru: Department of Environmental Management, Makerere University, Kampala P.O. Box 7062, Uganda

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 8, 1-16

Abstract: This study aimed at modeling scenarios of future land use and land cover (LULC) change and estimating ecosystem service (ES) values for the year 2051 compared to 2021 in Central Ethiopia. The future LULC changes for the year 2051 were simulated for four scenarios, namely Business-as-Usual (BAU), Rapid Agricultural Expansion (RAE), Ecosystems Protection and Agricultural Development (EPAD) and Landscape Ecosystems Restoration and Conservation (LERC). The four LULC change scenarios were simulated based on anticipated assumptions that were derived from existing spatial policies, a consultation workshop report on scenarios of agricultural development in Ethiopia, suitability analysis, population growth analysis and expert knowledge of the study area characteristics. We used a Multi-Layer Perceptron–Artificial Neuron Network (MLP–ANN) model-based projected LULC for the BAU scenario and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to generate RAE, EPAD and LERC scenarios in the study landscape. The benefit transfer method was used to estimate the total ES values and for trade-off analysis. The result showed that LULC changes in the study area varied across simulated scenarios compared to the base year 2021. Under the BAU and RAE scenarios, cultivated land increased by 146,548 ha (22%) and 193,965 ha (29%), whereas forest, water body, wetland and shrub-bush land were reduced. However, forest cover increased by 31,725 ha and 100,080 ha but bare land was reduced by 8466 ha (21%) and 10,379 ha (25%) under the EPAD and LERC scenarios. The forest cover annual rate of change was 3.2% and 6% under the EPAD and LERC scenarios. As a result, the total ES value increased by USD 24.5 and 78.5 million under the EPAD and LERC scenarios for the year 2051, whereas the total ES value was reduced under the BAU and RAE scenarios by USD 27.1 and 73.2 million. The trade-offs among ecosystem services were significantly synergized under the LERC scenario compared to RAE. Therefore, EPAD and LERC could be used as a reference for sustainable landscape planning and management. Landscape ecosystems restoration integrated with a sustainable agricultural intensification approach would enable us to ensure the sustainability of both agricultural production and ecosystem service synergies without negatively affecting the natural environment.

Keywords: landscape; ecosystem services; restoration; scenarios; MLP–ANN; InVEST; trade-offs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:8:p:1266-:d:882477

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