Time Series Analyses and Forecasting of Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity Using ARIMA Model in Punjab, Pakistan

Muhammad Sajid Mehmood, Zeeshan Zafar, Muhammad Sajjad, Sadam Hussain, Shiyan Zhai and Yaochen Qin ()
Additional contact information
Muhammad Sajid Mehmood: The College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China
Zeeshan Zafar: College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, China
Muhammad Sajjad: Centre for Geo-Computation Studies, Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong SAR, China
Sadam Hussain: Department of Agricultural Extension, Faculty of Crop and Food Sciences, PMAS Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi 46000, Pakistan
Shiyan Zhai: The College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China
Yaochen Qin: The College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China

Land, 2022, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-20

Abstract: In the context of rapid urbanization, Urban Heat Island (UHI) is considered as a major anthropogenic alteration in Earth environments, and its temporal trends and future forecasts for large areas did not receive much attention. Using land surface temperature (LST) data from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer) for years 2006 to 2020, we quantified the temporal trends of daytime and nighttime surface UHI intensity (SUHII, difference of urban temperature to rural temperature) using the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test in six major cities of the Punjab province of Pakistan and estimated the future SUHII for the year 2030 using the ARIMA model. Results from the study revealed that the average mean SUHII for daytime was noted as 2.221 °C and the average mean nighttime SUHII was noted as 2.82 °C for the years 2006 to 2020. The average mean SUHII for daytime and nighttime exhibited increasing trends for all seasons and annually, and for the daytime spring season it showed a maximum upward trend of 0.486 °C/year ( p < 0.05) and for the nighttime annual SUHII with an increasing rate of 0.485 °C/year ( p < 0.05) which exhibited a maximum upward trend. The ARIMA model forecast suggested an increase of 0.04 °C in the average daytime SUHII and an increase of 0.1 °C in the average nighttime SUHII until 2030. The results from this study highlight the increasing trends of daytime and nighttime SUHII, ARIMA also forecasted an increase in daytime and nighttime SUHII, suggesting various strategies are needed for an effective mitigation of the UHI effect.

Keywords: SUHII; land cover; LST; MK trend test; ARIMA; MODIS; Punjab (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/1/142/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/1/142/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2022:i:1:p:142-:d:1021933

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().