Land Use and Land Cover Change Monitoring and Prediction of a UNESCO World Heritage Site: Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone Using Cellular Automata-Markov Model

Nityaranjan Nath, Dhrubajyoti Sahariah, Gowhar Meraj, Jatan Debnath, Pankaj Kumar (), Durlov Lahon, Kesar Chand, Majid Farooq, Pankaj Chandan, Suraj Kumar Singh and Shruti Kanga
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Nityaranjan Nath: Department of Geography, Gauhati University, Guwahati 781014, India
Dhrubajyoti Sahariah: Department of Geography, Gauhati University, Guwahati 781014, India
Gowhar Meraj: Centre for Climate Change & Water Research (C3WR), Suresh Gyan Vihar University, Jaipur 302017, India
Jatan Debnath: Department of Geography, Gauhati University, Guwahati 781014, India
Pankaj Kumar: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama 240-0115, Japan
Durlov Lahon: Department of Geography, Gauhati University, Guwahati 781014, India
Kesar Chand: G.B Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, Himachal Regional Centre, Kullu 175126, India
Majid Farooq: Centre for Climate Change & Water Research (C3WR), Suresh Gyan Vihar University, Jaipur 302017, India
Pankaj Chandan: National Development Foundation, N.D.F., Shakuntla Bhawan, Jammu 180018, India
Suraj Kumar Singh: Centre for Climate Change & Water Research (C3WR), Suresh Gyan Vihar University, Jaipur 302017, India
Shruti Kanga: Department of Geography, School of Environment and Earth Sciences, Central University of Punjab, VPO-Ghudda, Bathinda 151401, India

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-21

Abstract: The Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone is located on the edge of the Eastern Himalayan biodiversity hotspot region. In 1985, the Kaziranga National Park (KNP) was declared a World Heritage Site by UNESCO. Nowadays, anthropogenic interference has created a significant negative impact on this national park. As a result, the area under natural habitat is gradually decreasing. The current study attempted to analyze the land use land cover (LULC) change in the Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone using remote sensing data with CA-Markov models. Satellite remote sensing and the geographic information system (GIS) are widely used for monitoring, mapping, and change detection of LULC change dynamics. The changing rate was assessed using thirty years (1990–2020) of Landsat data. The study analyses the significant change in LULC, with the decrease in the waterbody, grassland and agricultural land, and the increase of sand or dry river beds, forest, and built-up areas. Between 1990 and 2020, waterbody, grassland, and agricultural land decreased by 18.4, 9.96, and 64.88%, respectively, while sand or dry river beds, forest, and built-up areas increased by 103.72, 6.96, and 89.03%, respectively. The result shows that the area covered with waterbodies, grassland, and agricultural land is mostly converted into built-up areas and sand or dry river bed areas. According to this study, by 2050, waterbodies, sand or dry river beds, and forests will decrease by 3.67, 3.91, and 7.11%, respectively; while grassland and agriculture will increase by up to 16.67% and 0.37%, respectively. The built-up areas are expected to slightly decrease during this period (up to 2.4%). The outcome of this study is expected to be useful for the long-term management of the Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone.

Keywords: KNP; eco-sensitive zone; CA-Markov; geospatial; LULC change dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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