Current and Potential Future Distribution of Endemic Salvia ceratophylloides Ard. (Lamiaceae)

Valentina Lucia Astrid Laface, Carmelo Maria Musarella (), Gianmarco Tavilla, Agostino Sorgonà, Ana Cano-Ortiz, Ricardo Quinto Canas and Giovanni Spampinato ()
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Valentina Lucia Astrid Laface: Department of AGRARIA, Mediterranean University of Reggio Calabria, 89122 Reggio Calabria, Italy
Carmelo Maria Musarella: Department of AGRARIA, Mediterranean University of Reggio Calabria, 89122 Reggio Calabria, Italy
Gianmarco Tavilla: Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences, University of Catania, 95131 Catania, Italy
Agostino Sorgonà: Department of AGRARIA, Mediterranean University of Reggio Calabria, 89122 Reggio Calabria, Italy
Ana Cano-Ortiz: Department of Didactics of Experimental Social Sciences and Mathematics, Section of Didactics of Experimental Sciences, Faculty of Education, Complutense University of Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
Ricardo Quinto Canas: Faculty of Sciences and Technology, University of Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal
Giovanni Spampinato: Department of AGRARIA, Mediterranean University of Reggio Calabria, 89122 Reggio Calabria, Italy

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-21

Abstract: Human activities and climate change are the main factors causing habitat loss, jeopardising the survival of many species, especially those with limited range, such as endemic species. Recently, species distribution models (SDMs) have been used in conservation biology to assess their extinction risk, environmental dynamics, and potential distribution. This study analyses the potential, current and future distribution range of Salvia ceratophylloides Ard., an endemic perennial species of the Lamiaceae family that occurs exclusively in a limited suburban area of the city of Reggio Calabria (southern Italy). The MaxEnt model was employed to configure the current potential range of the species using bioclimatic and edaphic variables, and to predict the potential suitability of the habitat in relation to two future scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) for the periods 2021–2040 and 2041–2060. The field survey, which spanned 5 years (2017–2021), involved 17 occurrence points. According to the results of the MaxEnt model, the current potential distribution is 237.321 km 2 , which considering the preferred substrates of the species and land-use constraints is re-estimated to 41.392 km 2 . The model obtained from the SSP245 future scenario shows a decrease in the area suitable for the species of 35% in the 2021–2040 period and 28% in the 2041–2060 period. The SSP585 scenario shows an increase in the range suitable for hosting the species of 167% in the 2021–2040 period and 171% in the 2041–2060 period. Assessing variation in the species distribution related to the impacts of climate change makes it possible to define priority areas for reintroduction and in situ conservation. Identifying areas presumably at risk or, on the contrary, suitable for hosting the species is of paramount importance for management and conservation plans for Salvia ceratophylloides .

Keywords: conservation; Calabria; climate changes; endangered species; Italy; MaxEnt; SSP245; SSP585; vascular plants (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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