Swelling Cities? Detecting China’s Urban Land Transition Based on Time Series Data

Wei Pan, Jing Wang, Zhi Lu and Yurui Li ()
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Wei Pan: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Jing Wang: Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Zhi Lu: Peter B. Gustavson School of Business, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8P 5C2, Canada
Yurui Li: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: It is common to see urban land expansion worldwide, and its characteristics, mechanisms, and effects are widely known. As socio-economic transition and the change of land use policies may reverse the trend of urban expansion, in-depth research on the process of urban land use change is required. Through a process perspective, this paper reveals the change paths, development stages, and spatial patterns of urban residential land use with data from 323 cities in China from 2009 to 2016. The results show that: (1) theoretically, urban residential land use change can be divided into four development stages: an initial stage (Ⅰ), a rapid development stage (Ⅱ), a transition stage (Ⅲ), and a later stage of transition (Ⅳ). The rate of land use change is low—increase—decrease—approaching zero. (2) In about 68.7% of China’s cities, urban residential land is experiencing a transition, shifting from accelerating growth to decelerating growth. Given the distinctive transition process, it has been suggested that urban planning and land use policies should give timely responses to the new trends and spatial differences.

Keywords: urban residential land management; time series analysis; nonlinear change; land use transition; sustainable urban development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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