Modelling Impact of Urban Expansion on Ecosystem Services: A Scenario-Based Approach in a Mixed Natural/Urbanised Landscape

Fatemeh Mohammadyari (), Ardavan Zarandian, Mir Mehrdad Mirsanjari, Jurate Suziedelyte Visockiene and Egle Tumeliene
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Fatemeh Mohammadyari: Department of Environmental Sciences, Malayer University, Malayer 65719-95863, Iran
Ardavan Zarandian: Research Center for Environment and Sustainable Development (RCESD), Department of Environment, Tehran 19395-4697, Iran
Mir Mehrdad Mirsanjari: Department of Environmental Sciences, Malayer University, Malayer 65719-95863, Iran
Jurate Suziedelyte Visockiene: Department of Geodesy and Cadaster, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Sauletekio av. 11, LT-10223 Vilnius, Lithuania
Egle Tumeliene: Department of Geodesy and Cadaster, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Sauletekio av. 11, LT-10223 Vilnius, Lithuania

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 2, 1-24

Abstract: The present study aims at predicting future land use/land cover (LULC) and quantifying and mapping the ecosystem services (ESs) of water yield, outdoor recreation opportunity and food production in current (here, 2017) and future landscapes in Northern Iran, using the InVEST, Recreation Opportunity Spectrum (ROS) and yield models. To that end, two LULC scenarios known as business as usual (BAU) and protection-based (PB) plan were applied for 2028, using the Markov Artificial Neural Network and Multi-objective land allocation (MOLA) models. The results show that rapid urbanisation, caused by the expansion of human settlements and industrial areas, has led to a decline in the ESs in the region. Compared to the ESs in 2017, the service of water yield increases as urban expansion increases, whereas food production and recreation services decrease as urban expansion increases, under the BAU scenario. On the other hand, in the PB scenario, relatively better conditions can be observed for all three ESs. Considering that the ecological structures of this region have been severely affected by rapid urban expansion, the results of this research will be useful for maintaining the existing ESs and can greatly affect planning and decision-making regarding future development towards urban sustainability.

Keywords: land use scenario; ecosystem services; Markov Artificial Neural Network; MOLA model; urban expansion; Karaj landscape (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:2:p:291-:d:1041707

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