Spatial-Temporal Simulation of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use in Yangtze River Delta under SSP-RCP Scenarios

Mengyao Li, Hongxia Luo (), Zili Qin and Yuanxin Tong
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Mengyao Li: Chongqing Engineering Research Center for Remote Sensing Big Data Application, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
Hongxia Luo: Chongqing Engineering Research Center for Remote Sensing Big Data Application, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
Zili Qin: Chongqing Engineering Research Center for Remote Sensing Big Data Application, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
Yuanxin Tong: Chongqing Engineering Research Center for Remote Sensing Big Data Application, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 2, 1-18

Abstract: Land use change could affect the carbon sink of terrestrial ecosystems, implying that future carbon storage could be estimated by simulating land use patterns, which is of great significance for the ecological environment. Therefore, the patterns of future land use and carbon storage under the combination scenarios of different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of the Yangtze River Delta were simulated by introducing weight matrices into the Markov model and combining the PLUS and InVEST models. The results revealed that the woodland expands greatly during 2020–2060 under the SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario, and the carbon storage of 2060 is at a high level with an estimated value of 5069.31 × 10 6 t and an average annual increase of 19.13 × 10 6 t, indicating that the SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario contributes to the improvement of carbon storage. However, the area of built-up land is increasing under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario, and the estimated value of carbon storage is 3836.55 × 10 6 t, with an average annual decrease of 11.69 × 10 6 t, indicating that the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario negatively affects carbon sink. Besides, the SSP2-RCP4.5 scenario causes almost no effect on land use change and carbon storage. The above results can help policymakers manage land use patterns and choose the best development scenario.

Keywords: land use; carbon storage; Markov; PLUS; InVEST (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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