Multi-Scenario Land Use Simulation and Land Use Conflict Assessment Based on the CLUMondo Model: A Case Study of Liyang, China

Xiangnan Fan, Yuning Cheng () and Yicheng Li
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Xiangnan Fan: School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Yuning Cheng: School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Yicheng Li: School of Horticulture and Landscape Architecture, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 4, 1-26

Abstract: By predicting and analyzing regional land use conflicts (LUCs), the contradictory relationship between urban development and land resources can be revealed, which can assist in achieving the rational use of land resources. Taking Liyang as a case study, this paper simulated land use in 2030 under three scenarios, namely, the natural growth scenario (NGS), economic development scenario (EDS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS), using the CLUMondo model. The ecological risk assessment model was used to measure the LUCs under each scenario. Through the comprehensive analysis of land use conversion, spatial distribution, and the change characteristics of LUCs, optimization strategies for future land use are proposed. The results indicate that (1) the intensity of land conversion under the three scenarios is ranked as EDS > NGS > EPS; (2) there is little change in the LUCs under the EPS, while significant deterioration is observed under the NGS and EDS; (3) the intensity of LUCs is positively correlated with the degree of land use conversion; and (4) in the future, particular attention should be paid to areas around the city center, the Caoshan Development Zone in the northwest, and Nanshan Bamboo Sea in the south, where high-intensity land use conflicts may occur.

Keywords: land use simulation; CLUMondo model; land use/cover change (LUCC); land use conflicts (LUCs) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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