Predictions of Land Use/Land Cover Change and Landscape Pattern Analysis in the Lower Reaches of the Tarim River, China

Shanshan Wang, Qiting Zuo (), Kefa Zhou, Jinlin Wang and Wei Wang
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Shanshan Wang: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Qiting Zuo: School of Water Conservancy Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Kefa Zhou: Technology and Engineering Center for Space Utilization, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Jinlin Wang: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Wei Wang: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 5, 1-17

Abstract: Natural vegetation on both sides of the Tarim River Basin (TRB) is the only barrier—a critical ecological niche—between the economic belt in the artificial oasis and the Taklimakan Desert. To understand the impact of human activities on the TRB, we explored the spatial and temporal variations in land use/land cover change (LUCC) and landscape pattern evolution from 2000 to 2020. These variations were simulated for 2030 with the 20 years of data using the cellular automata–Markov model and geographical information system analyses. The results predicted substantial LUCCs in the lower reaches of the Tarim River (TRlr), with 3400 km 2 (20.29%) of the total area (16,760.94 km 2 ) undergoing changes. Wetland, artificial land, grassland, farmland, and forestland areas increased by 578.59, 43.90, 339.90, 201.62, and 536.11 km 2 , respectively, during the period from 2020 to 2030. The only decreases were in the Gobi/other deserts and bare soils (1700.13 km 2 ). We also determined current and future changes in TRlr landscape pattern indices at the class and landscape levels. Combined with a field survey and hydrological data, theoretical support for effective land use management strategies is provided. The findings offer a scientific basis for future ecological civilization construction and sustainable development in the TRB.

Keywords: land use/land cover change; landscape pattern index; predictive analysis; human–land relationship; Tarim River (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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