Climate Change Effects on Land Use and Land Cover Suitability in the Southern Brazilian Semiarid Region

Lucas Augusto Pereira da Silva (), Edson Eyji Sano, Taya Cristo Parreiras, Édson Luis Bolfe, Mário Marcos Espírito-Santo, Roberto Filgueiras, Cristiano Marcelo Pereira de Souza, Claudionor Ribeiro da Silva and Marcos Esdras Leite
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Lucas Augusto Pereira da Silva: Institute of Geography, Federal University of Uberlândia (UFU), Uberlândia 38408-100, Brazil
Edson Eyji Sano: Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa Cerrados), Planaltina 73301-970, Brazil
Taya Cristo Parreiras: Institute of Geosciences, State University of Campinas (Unicamp), Campinas 13083-855, Brazil
Édson Luis Bolfe: Institute of Geosciences, State University of Campinas (Unicamp), Campinas 13083-855, Brazil
Mário Marcos Espírito-Santo: Department of General Biology, State University of Montes Claros, Montes Claros 39401-089, Brazil
Roberto Filgueiras: Department of Agricultural Engineering, Federal University of Viçosa (UFV), Viçosa 36570-900, Brazil
Cristiano Marcelo Pereira de Souza: Geology Board, Federal University of Vale do São Francisco, Senhor do Bonfim 48970 000, Brazil
Claudionor Ribeiro da Silva: Institute of Geography, Federal University of Uberlândia (UFU), Uberlândia 38408-100, Brazil
Marcos Esdras Leite: Department of Geosciences, State University of Montes Claros, Montes Claros 39401-089, Brazil

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-20

Abstract: Climate change is expected to alter the environmental suitability of land use and land cover (LULC) classes globally. In this study, we investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the environmental suitability of the most representative LULC classes in the southern Brazilian semiarid region. We employed the Random Forest algorithm trained with climatic, soil, and topographic data to project future LULC suitability under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 2.6 (optimistic) and 8.5 (pessimistic) scenarios. The climate data included the mean annual air temperature and precipitation from the WorldClim2 platform for historical (1970–2000) and future (2061–2080) scenarios. Soil data were obtained from the SoilGrids 2.1 digital soil mapping platform, while topographic data were produced by NASA’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). Our model achieved an overall accuracy of 60%. Under the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5), croplands may lose approximately 8% of their suitable area, while pastures are expected to expand by up to 30%. Areas suitable for savannas are expected to increase under both RCP scenarios, potentially expanding into lands historically occupied by forests, grasslands, and eucalyptus plantations. These projected changes may lead to biodiversity loss and socioeconomic disruptions in the study area.

Keywords: land suitability; drylands; climate change; scenarios analysis; random forest (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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