Risk Evaluation of Urban Subway Site Selection: Balance, Attractiveness, and Financing Models

Yun Liu, Zhiqiang Xie (), Ping Wen (), Chunhou Ji, Ling Zhu, Qisheng Wang, Zheng Zhang, Zhuoqian Xiao, Bojin Ning, Quan Zhu and Yan Yang
Additional contact information
Yun Liu: College of Earth Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China
Zhiqiang Xie: College of Earth Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China
Ping Wen: Kunming Engineering Corporation Limited, Kunming 650500, China
Chunhou Ji: International Institute of River and Ecological Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China
Ling Zhu: College of Earth Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China
Qisheng Wang: College of Earth Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China
Zheng Zhang: International Institute of River and Ecological Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China
Zhuoqian Xiao: International Institute of River and Ecological Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China
Bojin Ning: Kunming Urban Planning & Design Institute Corporation Limited, Kunming 650500, China
Quan Zhu: Kunming Institute of Transportation Science, Kunming 650500, China
Yan Yang: Kunming Municipal Bureau of Natural Resources and Planning, Kunming 650500, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-27

Abstract: As a crucial form of public transportation, subways are becoming essential infrastructure that cities in China increasingly prioritize for development. However, there is a lack of effective risk assessment methods for subway station and line siting. To address this gap, this paper uses the subway system in Kunming, China, as a case study, establishing a subway site risk evaluation framework (SIRE-BAF) that integrates three dimensions: balance (B), attractiveness (A), and financing mode (F). An extended NP-RV model is proposed to assess the balance (or imbalance) characteristics of subway stations based on sub-dimensions of traffic supply, land use, and urban vitality. Findings indicate that (1) the balance (or imbalance) of subway stations is distinctly distributed along the line and simultaneously exhibits a spatial pattern radiating from the urban core to the periphery. (2) Stations with high urban vitality and minimal imbalance are highly attractive and tend to face “undersupply” during operation, whereas stations with lower attractiveness are more prone to “oversupply”. A higher level of BAF coupling coordination suggests a more suitable subway site selection and lower investment risk, while lower coupling coordination indicates increased risk. (3) Excessive reliance on the “subway + real estate” model, without considering urban vitality, may lead to high vacancy rates and reduced efficiency in subway service. This paper further assesses the site selection risks for the proposed Kunming subway. This study contributes to risk assessments of existing subway operations and maintenance in Chinese cities, enhances planning rationality and site selection for proposed subways, and holds potential applicability for other cities.

Keywords: urban subway; transportation supply; urban vitality; risk estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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