A Method for Predicting the Surface Subsidence Duration and the Maximum Subsidence Velocity

Yanjun Zhang, Fei Wang (), Yueguan Yan, Yuanhao Zhu, Linda Dai and Jiayuan Kong
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Yanjun Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Water Resource Protection and Utilization in Coal Mining, Beijing 102209, China
Fei Wang: State Key Laboratory of Water Resource Protection and Utilization in Coal Mining, Beijing 102209, China
Yueguan Yan: College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
Yuanhao Zhu: College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
Linda Dai: College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
Jiayuan Kong: College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-25

Abstract: The surface subsidence duration and the maximum subsidence velocity are critical indicators to evaluate the stability and severity of surface damage. Precisely predicting them is important for guiding engineering design and protecting ground infrastructure. Traditional manual measurement methods are time-consuming and laborious, and the existing empirical formulas have low accuracy and poor applicability. Therefore, a new prediction method was established in this paper. Measured data from 30 mining areas were used for verification. The results show that the predicted surface subsidence duration is basically consistent with the measured value. The standard deviation of the two is 61 d, and the relative standard deviation is 6.6%. The predicted surface maximum subsidence velocity is basically consistent with the measured value. The standard deviation of the two is 10.0 mm/d, and the relative standard deviation is 1.6%. The surface subsidence duration and the maximum subsidence velocity are positively correlated with the coal seam thickness, negatively and positively correlated with the mining speed, and positively and negatively correlated with the mining depth. The mining speed and mining depth have the same sensitivity to the two indicators, and the coal seam thickness is more sensitive to the surface subsidence duration. Furthermore, construction within the subsidence basin may further contribute to surface subsidence. Therefore, land reuse measures should be implemented following the predicted surface subsidence duration in this paper. This study addresses the knowledge gap in this field by deriving theoretical formulas for surface subsidence duration and maximum subsidence velocity. In the absence of sufficient measured data, engineers can calculate predicted values in combination with geological mining conditions and develop appropriate mining plans based on the extent of surface subsidence.

Keywords: land subsidence; surface subsidence duration; surface maximum subsidence velocity; prediction method; time function (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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