Effects of Environmental Changes on Flood Patterns in the Jing River Basin: A Case Study from the Loess Plateau, China

Jiqiang Lyu (), Yuhao Yang, Shanshan Yin, Zhizhou Yang, Zhaohui Zhou, Yan Wang, Pingping Luo, Meng Jiao and Aidi Huo
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Jiqiang Lyu: School of Water and Environment, Chang‘an University, Xi’an 710064, China
Yuhao Yang: School of Water and Environment, Chang‘an University, Xi’an 710064, China
Shanshan Yin: Bureau of Water Resources of the Yuncheng City, Yuncheng 044000, China
Zhizhou Yang: School of Water and Environment, Chang‘an University, Xi’an 710064, China
Zhaohui Zhou: School of Water and Environment, Chang‘an University, Xi’an 710064, China
Yan Wang: School of Water and Environment, Chang‘an University, Xi’an 710064, China
Pingping Luo: School of Water and Environment, Chang‘an University, Xi’an 710064, China
Meng Jiao: Power China Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited, Xi’an 710065, China
Aidi Huo: School of Water and Environment, Chang‘an University, Xi’an 710064, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-25

Abstract: Human activities and climate change have significantly influenced the water cycle, impacting flood risks and water security. This study centers on the Jing River Basin in the Chinese Loess Plateau, analyzing hydrological patterns and flood progression using the HEC-HMS model under changing conditions. The findings indicate that climate change substantially affects flood predictions, increasing peak flows and volumes by up to 10.9% and 11.1%, respectively. It is essential to recognize that traditional flood models may underestimate the risks posed by these changes, emphasizing the necessity for updated methods incorporating climatic and human factors. Changes in land use, such as the expansion of grasslands and forests, have reduced peak discharges and flood volumes. Consequently, the combined impacts of climate and land use changes have intensified flood frequencies, necessitating updated strategies to manage risks effectively. The dynamics of flooding are significantly impacted by changes in climate and land use, particularly in minor floods that occur frequently, highlighting the influence of climate change on flooding trends. Within the Jing River Basin, hydrological patterns have been shaped by both climatic variations and human activities, leading to an increase in extreme hydrological events and concerns regarding water security. Using the HEC-HMS model, this study examines the hydrology of the Jing River Basin, focusing on the design of storm events and analyzing various flood characteristics under different scenarios. Climate change has resulted in higher peak discharges and volume surges ranging from 6.3% to 10.9%, while shifts in land use, such as decreases in farmland and the expansion of grasslands, have caused declines ranging from 7.2% to 4.7% in peak flows and volumes. The combined effects of climate variation and land utilization have complex implications for flood patterns, with milder to moderate floods showing a more significant impact and shorter return periods facing increased consequences. These findings underscore the interconnected nature of climate change, land use, and flooding dynamics in the Jing River Basin, highlighting the need for comprehensive strategies to address these challenges and ensure sustainable water management in the region.

Keywords: Loess Plateau; stormwater flood; changing environment; HEC-HMS model; conditional probability model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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