Forecasting of Grasslands Distribution on Mount Zireia Using Ecological Niche Modeling and Future Climatic Scenarios

Maria Karatassiou (), Afroditi Stergiou, Dimitrios Chouvardas, Mohamed Tarhouni and Athanasios Ragkos
Additional contact information
Maria Karatassiou: Laboratory of Rangeland Ecology, School of Forestry and Natural Environment, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, P.O. Box 286, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
Afroditi Stergiou: Laboratory of Rangeland Ecology, School of Forestry and Natural Environment, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, P.O. Box 286, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
Dimitrios Chouvardas: Laboratory of Rangeland Ecology, School of Forestry and Natural Environment, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, P.O. Box 286, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
Mohamed Tarhouni: Pastoral Ecosystems Spontaneous Plants and Associated Microorganisms Laboratory, Arid Regions Institute, University of Gabes, Route of Djerba km 22.5, Medenine 4100, Tunisia
Athanasios Ragkos: Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Hellenic Agricultural Organization—DIMITRA, Kourtidou 56–58, 11145 Athens, Greece

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-18

Abstract: Grassland ecosystems cover a high percentage of the terrestrial habitats of Earth and support the livelihood and well-being of at least one-fifth of the human population. Climate change and human activities are causing increasing pressure on arid and semi-arid regions. Land use/cover change significantly affects the function and distribution of grasslands, showing diverse patterns across space and time. The study investigated the spatial distribution of grasslands of Mount Zireia (Peloponnesus, Greece) using MaxEnt modeling based on CMIP6 models (CNRM-CM6 and CCMCC-ESM2) and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 245 and SSP 585) covering the period of 1970–2100. The results from the current (1970–2000) and several future periods (2020–2100) revealed that the MaxEnt model provided highly accurate forecasts. The grassland distribution was found to be significantly impacted by climate change, with impacts varying by period, scenario, and climate model used. In particular, the CNRM-CM6-1 model forecasts a substantial increase in grasslands at higher elevations up to 2100 m asl. The research emphasizes the importance of exploring the combined impacts of climate change and grazing intensity on land use and cover changes in mountainous grasslands.

Keywords: MaxEnt model; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; land use/cover change; climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/12/2126/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/12/2126/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:12:p:2126-:d:1539104

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().