Coupled PLUS and SWAT Model Assessment of Streamflow Response to Climate Change and Human Interventions in Arid Alpine Regions: A Case Study of the Zamu River, China

Honghua Xia, Linshan Yang (), Qi Feng, Wei Liu, Yingqing Su, Minyan Wu, Wanghan He and Xingyi Zou
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Honghua Xia: Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Linshan Yang: Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Qi Feng: Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Wei Liu: Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Yingqing Su: Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Minyan Wu: College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya’an 625014, China
Wanghan He: Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
Xingyi Zou: Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-22

Abstract: Climate change and human interventions have exerted a long-term influence on variations in continental streamflow. Despite this, the precise mechanisms by which these factors regulate the change in streamflow remain inadequately understood, especially in arid alpine regions, due to the limited number of observations which exacerbates difficulties in comprehensively assessing streamflow alterations. Consequently, assessing the impacts of climate change and human interventions on streamflow is a challenge in data-scarce regions. Here, using the Zamu River as an example, we analyzed streamflow changes in arid alpine regions using a method that integrates the Patch-generated Land Use Simulation model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Our analysis highlighted that climate change primarily drove streamflow variations in the Zamu River, accounting for over 80% of the observed contributions. This influence was further amplified by the effects of future climate and changes in land use and land cover, resulting in increased streamflow. Additionally, precipitation emerged as the main factor driving the rise in streamflow. These findings emphasize the significant impact of climate change on water cycles in arid alpine regions and underscore the necessity for tailored water resource management strategies to ensure sustainable regional development and effective climate change adaptation.

Keywords: streamflow; climate change; land use/cover change; SWAT model; arid alpine region (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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