Ecosystem Services Trade-Offs in the Chaohu Lake Basin Based on Land-Use Scenario Simulations

Aibo Jin, Gachen Zhang, Ping Ma and Xiangrong Wang ()
Additional contact information
Aibo Jin: School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
Gachen Zhang: School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
Ping Ma: School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
Xiangrong Wang: School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-29

Abstract: Amid global environmental degradation, understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and trade-offs of ecosystem services (ESs) under varying land-use scenarios is critical for advancing the sustainable development of social–ecological systems. This study analyzed the Chaohu Lake Basin (CLB), focusing on four scenarios: natural development (ND), economic priority (ED), ecological protection (EP), and sustainable development (SD). Using the PLUS model and multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA), land-use changes for 2030 were simulated, and their effects on ESs were assessed quantitatively and qualitatively. The ND scenario led to significant declines in cropland (3.73%) and forest areas (0.18%), primarily due to construction land expansion. The EP scenario curbed construction land growth, promoted ecosystem recovery, and slightly increased cropland by 0.05%. The SD scenario achieved a balance between ecological and economic goals, maintaining relative stability in ES provision. Between 2010 and 2020, construction land expansion, mainly concentrated in central Hefei City, led to a marked decline in habitat quality (HQ) and landscape aesthetics (LA), whereas water yield (WY) and soil retention (SR) improved. K-means clustering analysis identified seven ecosystem service bundles (ESBs), revealing significant spatial heterogeneity. Bundles 4 through 7, concentrated in mountainous and water regions, offered high biodiversity maintenance and ecological regulation. In contrast, critical ES areas in the ND and ED scenarios faced significant encroachment, resulting in diminished ecological functions. The SD scenario effectively mitigated these impacts, maintaining stable ES provision and ESB distribution. This study highlights the profound effects of different land-use scenarios on ESs, offering insights into sustainable planning and ecological restoration strategies in the CLB and comparable regions.

Keywords: ecosystem services; land change dynamics; scenario simulation; multi-objective genetic algorithm; Chaohu Lake Basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/12/2210/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/12/2210/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:12:p:2210-:d:1545982

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().