Dynamic Analysis for Enhancing Urban Resilience Against Public Health Emergencies of International Concern

Ruize Qin, Peng Cui (), Shenghua Zhou and Fan Zhang
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Ruize Qin: Department of Engineering Management, School of Civil Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
Peng Cui: Department of Engineering Management, School of Civil Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
Shenghua Zhou: Department of Construction and Real Estate, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China
Fan Zhang: Department of Building and Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-39

Abstract: The frequent occurrence of Public Health Emergencies of International Concern (PHEIC) has posed significant challenges to urban public health, economic, and social systems, exposing gaps in urban resilience. This study developed a dynamic urban resilience assessment framework against PHEIC based on the system dynamics method, integrating index analysis and the SEIR (susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered) epidemiological model to investigate the interactions and dynamic evolution of urban subsystems in New York, Hong Kong, and Nanjing during the COVID-19 epidemic. The findings revealed significant differences in the response mechanisms and recovery capacities across subsystems. For example, the stringent lockdowns policy in New York curbed virus spread and heavily impacted economic activities; the “close to Dynamic zero of COVID-19” policy in Hong Kong demonstrated stronger resilience in balancing public health and economic recovery; the dynamic control measures in Nanjing China allowed for the rapid restoration of urban functions with minimal resilience fluctuations. Although strict control measures can effectively suppress disease spread, they can have profound economic and social impacts. More scientific strategies, such as those seen in Hong Kong and Nanjing, offer a more balanced approach to managing both epidemic control and urban function recovery, providing key insights for future PHEIC response strategies.

Keywords: urban resilience; system dynamics; PHEIC; emergency management; epidemic simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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