Agricultural Yield Responses to Climate Variabilities in West Africa: A Food Supply and Demand Analysis

Martin Schultze (), Stephen Kankam, Safiétou Sanfo and Christine Fürst
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Martin Schultze: Department of Sustainable Landscape Development, Institute for Geosciences and Geography, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Von-Seckendorff-Platz 4, 06120 Halle, Germany
Stephen Kankam: Department of Sustainable Landscape Development, Institute for Geosciences and Geography, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Von-Seckendorff-Platz 4, 06120 Halle, Germany
Safiétou Sanfo: West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land-Use (WASCAL), Competence Centre, Blvd Moammar El-Khadafi, Ouagadougou 06 BP 9507, Burkina Faso
Christine Fürst: Department of Sustainable Landscape Development, Institute for Geosciences and Geography, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Von-Seckendorff-Platz 4, 06120 Halle, Germany

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 3, 1-22

Abstract: Agricultural productivity is expected to decrease under changing climate conditions that correspond to the stability of West African food systems. Although numerous studies have evaluated impacts of climate variability on crop yields, many uncertainties are still associated with climate extremes as well as the rapid population growth and corresponding dietary lifestyle. Here, we present a food supply and demand analysis based on the relationship between climate change, crop production, and population growth in three sites from southwestern Burkina Faso to southwestern Ghana. Climate and agricultural time series were analyzed by using boxplots mixed with a Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope. Food balance sheets were calculated by estimating the demand using a population growth model linked to food supply with local consumption patterns. We found almost insignificant rainfall and temperature trends for both sites in the Sudano-Guinean savannah. Conversely, the climate regime of southwestern Ghana revealed a strong significant increasing temperature over time. Crop yield trends demonstrated that maize and sorghum were significantly enhanced in both study areas of the Sudano-Guinean savannah. Southwestern Ghana depicted a different crop pattern where cassava and plantain showed a strong upward yield trend. The grouped food balance sheets across the regions illustrated a surplus for the Sudano-Guinean savannah while southwestern Ghana exhibited a deficit. Despite the growing yield of various crops, food demand is outpacing regional production.

Keywords: agriculture; climate variability; crop yield; food supply and demand analysis; West Africa; Ghana; Burkina Faso (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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