A Multi-Scenario Simulation and Dynamic Assessment of the Ecosystem Service Values in Key Ecological Functional Areas: A Case Study of the Sichuan Province, China

Wei Li, Xi Chen, Jianghua Zheng (), Feifei Zhang, Yang Yan, Wenyue Hai, Chuqiao Han and Liang Liu
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Wei Li: College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Xi Chen: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Jianghua Zheng: College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Feifei Zhang: College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Yang Yan: College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Wenyue Hai: College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Chuqiao Han: College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Liang Liu: College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 4, 1-30

Abstract: The ecosystem service value (ESV) is an important basis for measuring an ecological environment’s quality and the efficient management of ecosystems. It is particularly necessary to explore a proven methodology for assessing and predicting ESV dynamics coupled with policy-oriented scenarios that can provide a theoretical groundwork for macro decision, particularly in the context of implementing ecological protection and restoration projects. This study selected the land cover (LC) of Sichuan Province at five periods and the spatiotemporal dynamic equivalent factor method to assess the ESVs from 2000 to 2020. Additionally, the study coupled the Markov chain and GeoSOS-FLUS model, and predicted the future pattern of ESVs under four future development scenarios. The results show that (a) the areas of forests, shrubs, waters, wastelands, wetlands, and impervious areas showed a continuous increase from 2000 to 2020, with the most frequent interchanges occurring among croplands, forests, and grasslands. (b) The implementation of ecological protection and restoration projects led to a 13,083.32 × 10 8 yuan increase in ESV, and barycenter of the ESVs is located in the northeastern part of Ya’an and exhibits a tendency to move towards the northeast. (c) The ESV aggregation pattern of each city has remained unchanged, with Ganzi being the only city with a high aggregation. Overall, there are more conflict cities than coordination cities between economic development and the ecological environment. (d) The total ESV in 2025 will continue to increase under all development scenarios, reaching a maximum of 50,903.37 × 10 8 yuan under the EP scenario. This study can provide insights for ecological planning decisions and sustainable regional socio-economic development.

Keywords: ecosystem service value; ecological protection and restoration projects; GeoSOS–FLUS; spatiotemporal characteristics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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