Impacts of Land Use Conversion on Soil Erosion in the Urban Agglomeration on the Northern Slopes of the Tianshan Mountains

Ziqi Guo, Zhaojin Yan (), Rong He, Hui Yang, Hui Ci and Ran Wang
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Ziqi Guo: School of Environment and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China
Zhaojin Yan: School of Resources and Geosciences, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China
Rong He: Department of Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering, Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, CA 95053, USA
Hui Yang: School of Resources and Geosciences, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China
Hui Ci: School of Resources and Geosciences, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China
Ran Wang: School of Resources and Geosciences, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 4, 1-26

Abstract: The serious problem of soil erosion not only has a profound impact on people’s lives but also results in a series of ecological and environmental challenges. To determine the impact of changes in land use type on soil erosion in the urban agglomeration on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, this study commences by employing the InVEST-SDR (integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs–sediment delivery ratio) model to calculate soil erosion levels spanning from 2000 to 2020. Subsequently, it forecasts land use and land cover (LULC) conditions for the year 2030 under three scenarios: Q1 (natural development), Q2 (ecological protection), and Q3 (economic priority). This projection is accomplished through the integration of a coupled Markov chain and multi-objective planning model (MOP) alongside patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) models. Ultimately, based on these outcomes, the study predicts soil erosion levels for the year 2030. There has been a consistent decline in soil erosion from 2000 to 2020 with high-intensity erosion concentrated in the Tianshan Mountain region. Grasslands, glaciers, and permafrost are identified as the most erosion-prone land types in the study area, with forests exhibiting the highest capacity for soil retention. Converting from grassland and barren land to forest within the same area results in a substantial reduction in soil erosion, specifically by 27.3% and 46.3%, respectively. Furthermore, the transformation from barren land to grassland also leads to a noteworthy 19% decrease in soil erosion. Over the past two decades, the study area has witnessed a significant decline in the area of grasslands, with a notable shift towards barren and impervious surfaces due to economic development and mining activities. The three predicted scenarios depict significant expansion towards barren land, grassland, and impervious area, respectively. Soil erosion decreases under different shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios relative to 2020. There is an increase in soil erosion in the Q1 scenario and in the Q3 scenario, whereas the amount of soil erosion in the Q2 scenario exhibits a continued decrease when only the effect of land change on soil erosion is considered. Persistently rapid economic development can exacerbate soil erosion problems, underscoring the need to find a balance between economic growth and ecological conservation. As economic expansion slows down, greater emphasis should be placed on environmental protection to maintain ecological stability.

Keywords: InVEST-SDR model; land use change; multi-scenario prediction; soil erosion; urban agglomeration on the northern slopes of Tianshan Mountains (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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