Multi-Scenario Land Use Optimization Simulation and Ecosystem Service Value Estimation Based on Fine-Scale Land Survey Data

Rui Shu (), Zhanqi Wang, Na Guo, Ming Wei, Yebin Zou and Kun Hou
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Rui Shu: School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences (CUG), Wuhan 430074, China
Zhanqi Wang: School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences (CUG), Wuhan 430074, China
Na Guo: Ningxia Natural Resources Information Center, Yinchuan 750002, China
Ming Wei: Ningxia Department of Natural Resources, Yinchuan 750002, China
Yebin Zou: School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China
Kun Hou: School of Remote Sensing and Geomatics Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 4, 1-23

Abstract: Land optimization simulation and ecosystem service value (ESV) estimation can better serve land managers in decision-making. However, land survey data are seldom used in existing studies, and land optimization constraints fail to fully consider land planning control, and the optimization at the provincial scale is not fine enough, which leads to a disconnection between academic research and land management. We coupled ESV, gray multi-objective optimization (GMOP), and patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) models based on authoritative data on land management to project land use and ESV change under natural development (ND), rapid economic development (RED), ecological land protection (ELP), and sustainable development (SD) scenarios in 2030. The results show that construction land expanded dramatically (by 97.96% from 2000 to 2020), which encroached on grassland and cropland. This trend will continue in the BAU scenario. Construction land, woodland, and cropland are the main types of land used for expansion, while grassland and unused land, which lack strict use control, are the main land outflow categories. From 2000 to 2030, the total amount of ESV increases steadily and slightly. The spatial distribution of ESV is significantly aggregated and the agglomeration is increasing. The policy direction and land planning are important reasons for land use changes. The land use scenarios we set up can play an important role in preventing the uncontrolled expansion of construction land, mitigating the phenomenon of ecological construction, i.e., “governance while destruction”, and promoting food security. This study provides a new approach for provincial large-scale land optimization and ESV estimation based on land survey data and provides technical support for achieving sustainable land development.

Keywords: ecosystem service value; GMOP-PLUS coupling model; multi-scenario simulation; fine-scale land use optimization; land survey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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