Impact of Urban Expansion on School Quality in Compulsory Education: A Spatio-Temporal Study of Dalian, China

Zhenchao Zhang, Weixin Luan (), Chuang Tian and Min Su
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Zhenchao Zhang: School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China
Weixin Luan: School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China
Chuang Tian: School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China
Min Su: School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 2, 1-20

Abstract: With rapid urbanization, improving school quality in compulsory education is critical for optimal educational resource allocation. This study integrates a random forest machine learning model, GIS spatial analysis, and a spatial econometric model to examine the spatiotemporal differentiation of school quality in Dalian, China, in 2016 and 2020, as well as its relationships with the construction land development cycle, population density, and housing prices. The findings reveal a core–periphery structure, with overall school quality on the rise and basic facility configuration exerting a stronger impact than teacher strength. Among internal resources, per capita sports venue area (PCSFA) and per capita teaching equipment value (PCTRE) contribute most significantly to school quality, while high-quality clusters in traditional educational hubs, university-covered areas, and transitional zones spur improvements in surrounding schools. The population density, housing prices, and the construction land development cycle all positively correlate with school quality, highlighting the need for coordinated action among urban planners, education authorities, and housing regulators to ensure that land development, housing affordability, and school facility investments advance equitable access to quality education. These results provide a novel perspective on compulsory education quality assessment and offer a valuable foundation for guiding education policies and urban development strategies.

Keywords: compulsory education; school quality; construction land expansion; spatio-temporal differentiation; spatial econometric model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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