A Multi-Regional CGE Model for the Optimization of Land Resource Allocation: A Simulation of the Impact of High-Quality Development Policies in China

Luge Wen, Tiyan Shen () and Yuran Huang
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Luge Wen: School of Government, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Tiyan Shen: School of Government, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Yuran Huang: Beijing Municipal Finance Bureau, Beijing 101160, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 3, 1-26

Abstract: Land, as the foundation of all productive activities, plays a crucial role in achieving high-quality development across regions. China’s current land allocation model, which focuses on land quota distribution, has several drawbacks and does not address the conflict between limited land availability and increasing demand. To maximize land use benefits, it is essential to develop scientifically sound allocation plans that effectively adjust land structure and layout. However, existing research often relies on single-attribute geographic or linear programming models which do not meet the multidimensional needs of modern territorial planning. Additionally, commonly used CGE models often overlook the critical role of construction land. To address these gaps, this study introduces a multi-scale, multi-type China Territorial Spatial Planning Simulation Model (CTSPM). This model integrates cultivated, forest, grassland, and construction land, simulating the land use changes driven by socioeconomic impacts through price mechanisms. By employing a land use transition matrix, the CTSPM enhances practical applicability and improves predictions for residential and non-agricultural construction land. It provides a scientific tool for evaluating land policies, supporting interdepartmental negotiations on land quotas, and contributing to natural resource governance and territorial spatial planning. Using the CTSPM, we simulated various high-quality development scenarios and derived the following conclusions: (1) An increase in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) significantly boosts regional economic development and the demand for non-agricultural land; a 1% increase in TFP leads to a 1.48% rise in actual GDP and a 0.19% increase in total non-agricultural land demand. (2) At the regional level, eastern regions experience a greater impact on total land demand compared to central and western regions. (3) In terms of land use types, cultivated and grassland areas show a decreasing trend, while forest and construction land areas are increasing.

Keywords: land resource allocation; China’s territorial spatial planning policy; computable general equilibrium models; high-quality development; simulation model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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