Risk Assessment and Dynamic Monitoring of China’s Agricultural Investment in Countries Along the Belt and Road Under the Guidance of Cultivated Land Resources

Yameng Wang, Guanglu Zhu, Mingyue Zhang, Songxiang Wang, Yuxin Han and Linyan Ma ()
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Yameng Wang: School of Economics, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276800, China
Guanglu Zhu: School of Economics, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276800, China
Mingyue Zhang: School of Economics, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276800, China
Songxiang Wang: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Yuxin Han: Research Center of Resource Utilization and Environmental Protection, Hebei University, Baoding 071000, China
Linyan Ma: School of Economics and Management, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling 712100, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 3, 1-32

Abstract: Establishing a sound agricultural investment risk measurement and dynamic monitoring mechanism is a key path to optimize the efficiency of agricultural capital allocation and ensure the stability of the global food supply chain. Based on the five dimensions of politics, economy, society, agricultural management, and bilateral diplomatic and economic relations with China, this paper constructs an index system to assess the risks of China’s agricultural investment in 49 countries along “the Belt and Road” and uses nuclear density analysis, a Markov chain, and other methods to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of different risks during 1995–2022. A deep neural network model is constructed to monitor the investment risk dynamically. The research shows that China’s agricultural investment risk to most of the countries along the route (61.22%) is at a normal level, and risk in bilateral diplomatic and economic relations with China is the most critical influencing factor. The agricultural investment risk among countries along the route has a significant positive spatial correlation and dynamic infectivity and shows a trend of gradually transferring from high risk to low risk in the long run. Endowment of agricultural water resources, natural disasters, and other indicators have the greatest impact on the high risk. Unemployment status and communication level have the greatest influence on the low risk. Investment relationship and endowment of agricultural land resources have the least influence on different investment risk levels. On this basis, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for expanding the investment scale and strengthening dynamic monitoring. This paper enriches the index system of China’s agricultural investment risk and provides a reference for other countries’ agricultural investment and regional economic belt construction.

Keywords: risk assessment; dynamic monitoring; agricultural foreign investment; the Belt and Road (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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