Analysis of Cultivated Land Productivity in Southern China: Stability and Drivers

Zhihong Yu, Yingcong Ye (), Yefeng Jiang, Yuqing Liu, Yanqing Liao, Weifeng Li, Lihua Kuang and Xi Guo ()
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Zhihong Yu: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Watershed Agricultural Resources and Ecology (Co-Construction by Ministry and Province), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China
Yingcong Ye: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Watershed Agricultural Resources and Ecology (Co-Construction by Ministry and Province), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China
Yefeng Jiang: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Watershed Agricultural Resources and Ecology (Co-Construction by Ministry and Province), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China
Yuqing Liu: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Watershed Agricultural Resources and Ecology (Co-Construction by Ministry and Province), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China
Yanqing Liao: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Watershed Agricultural Resources and Ecology (Co-Construction by Ministry and Province), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China
Weifeng Li: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Watershed Agricultural Resources and Ecology (Co-Construction by Ministry and Province), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China
Lihua Kuang: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Watershed Agricultural Resources and Ecology (Co-Construction by Ministry and Province), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China
Xi Guo: Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Watershed Agricultural Resources and Ecology (Co-Construction by Ministry and Province), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 4, 1-20

Abstract: Owing to climate change and increasing resource competition, elucidating the control mechanism of cultivated land productivity stability is essential. Previous research has focused on anthropogenic or climatic factors individually, overlooking their combined effects; therefore, the “climate–anthropogenic” framework was constructed. Net primary productivity (NPP) was employed to measure the cultivated land productivity and investigate the impact of climate change and anthropogenic factors on cultivated land productivity stability in Poyang Lake from 2001 to 2022. Results revealed that NPP increased but fluctuated significantly and was higher in southern Poyang Lake than in the north. The low spatial stability distribution fluctuation area was concentrated in the periphery of Poyang Lake, the periphery and riverbank comprised the middle and high fluctuation areas, and the Ganjiang River Delta exhibited high fluctuation. Multiple linear regression analysis indicated that the stability of cultivated land productivity was positively impacted by farmland and river proximity and average patch area and that fractal dimension was positively affected and negatively impacted by low farmland proximity and average annual precipitation. Stable cultivated land production and improved utilization efficiency requires irrigation and drainage system optimization and improved adaptability to climate change. Moreover, cultivated land fragmentation should be reduced, and the resilience of cultivated land to external disturbances should be enhanced.

Keywords: cultivated land productivity; NPP; stability; drivers; Poyang Lake region (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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