Land-Use Threats and Protected Areas: A Scenario-Based, Landscape Level Approach

Tamara S. Wilson, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Rachel R. Sleeter and Christopher E. Soulard
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Tamara S. Wilson: U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road MS-531, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA
Benjamin M. Sleeter: U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road MS-531, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA
Rachel R. Sleeter: U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road MS-531, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA
Christopher E. Soulard: U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road MS-531, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA

Land, 2014, vol. 3, issue 2, 1-28

Abstract: Anthropogenic land use will likely present a greater challenge to biodiversity than climate change this century in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Even if species are equipped with the adaptive capacity to migrate in the face of a changing climate, they will likely encounter a human-dominated landscape as a major dispersal obstacle. Our goal was to identify, at the ecoregion-level, protected areas in close proximity to lands with a higher likelihood of future land-use conversion. Using a state-and-transition simulation model, we modeled spatially explicit (1 km 2 ) land use from 2000 to 2100 under seven alternative land-use and emission scenarios for ecoregions in the Pacific Northwest. We analyzed scenario-based land-use conversion threats from logging, agriculture, and development near existing protected areas. A conversion threat index (CTI) was created to identify ecoregions with highest projected land-use conversion potential within closest proximity to existing protected areas. Our analysis indicated nearly 22% of land area in the Coast Range, over 16% of land area in the Puget Lowland, and nearly 11% of the Cascades had very high CTI values. Broader regional-scale land-use change is projected to impact nearly 40% of the Coast Range, 30% of the Puget Lowland, and 24% of the Cascades ( i . e ., two highest CTI classes). A landscape level, scenario-based approach to modeling future land use helps identify ecoregions with existing protected areas at greater risk from regional land-use threats and can help prioritize future conservation efforts.

Keywords: land use; land cover; protected areas; scenarios; state-and-transition models; IPCC; conversion threat; Pacific Northwest (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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