Modeling Future Land Cover Changes and Their Effects on the Land Surface Temperatures in the Saudi Arabian Eastern Coastal City of Dammam

Muhammad Tauhidur Rahman, Adel S. Aldosary and Md. Golam Mortoja
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Muhammad Tauhidur Rahman: Department of City and Regional Planning, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, KFUPM Box 5053, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia
Adel S. Aldosary: Department of City and Regional Planning, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, KFUPM Box 5053, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia
Md. Golam Mortoja: ICT-GIS Division, Institute of Water Modelling, House #496, Road # 32, New DOHS, Mohakhali, Dhaka 1206, Bangladesh

Land, 2017, vol. 6, issue 2, 1-16

Abstract: Over the past several decades, Saudi cities have experienced rapid urban developments and land use and land cover (LULC) changes. These developments will have numerous short- and long-term consequences including increasing the land surface temperature (LST) of these cities. This study investigated the effects of LULC changes on the LST for the eastern coastal city of Dammam. Using Landsat imagery, the study first detected the LULC using the maximum likelihood classification method and derived the LSTs for the years 1990, 2002, and 2014. Using the classified results, it then modeled the future LULC for 2026 using the Cellular Automata Markov (CAM) model. Finally, using three thematic indices and linear regression analysis, it then modeled the LST for 2026 as well. The built-up area in Dammam increased by 28.9% between 1990 and 2014. During this period, the average LSTs for the LULC classes increased as well, with bare soil and built-up area having the highest LST. By 2026, the urban area is expected to encompass 55% of the city and 98% of the land cover is envisioned to have average LSTs over 41 °C. Such high temperatures will make it difficult for the residents to live in the area.

Keywords: land use and land cover change; urban growth modeling; Cellular Automata Markov (CAM) model; land surface temperature; Saudi Arabia; urban heat island (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:6:y:2017:i:2:p:36-:d:99952

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