Impact of Future Land Use Change on Large Carnivores Connectivity in the Polish Carpathians

Dominik Kaim, Elżbieta Ziółkowska, Marcin Szwagrzyk, Bronwyn Price and Jacek Kozak
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Dominik Kaim: Faculty of Geography and Geology, Institute of Geography and Spatial Management, Jagiellonian University, Gronostajowa 7, 30-387 Kraków, Poland
Elżbieta Ziółkowska: Faculty of Biology, Institute of Environmental Sciences, Jagiellonian University, Gronostajowa 7, 30-387 Kraków, Poland
Marcin Szwagrzyk: Faculty of Geography and Geology, Institute of Geography and Spatial Management, Jagiellonian University, Gronostajowa 7, 30-387 Kraków, Poland
Bronwyn Price: Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Land Change Science, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Jacek Kozak: Faculty of Geography and Geology, Institute of Geography and Spatial Management, Jagiellonian University, Gronostajowa 7, 30-387 Kraków, Poland

Land, 2019, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: The Polish Carpathians, like many mountain areas in Europe, are currently facing dynamic land use changes that will shape their future landscapes. As there are many different possible scenarios of potential change, we compared three different land use scenarios up until the year 2060 and assessed their impact on the potential habitat connectivity of two large carnivores—wolf ( Canis lupus ) and lynx ( Lynx lynx ). We first analysed the main directions of change within and outside the pan-European wildlife corridor located in the western part of the Polish Carpathians. Then we calculated and compared least-cost paths among randomly selected points for each land use scenario separately. Our results showed that the main direction of change—forest cover increase—may positively influence habitat connectivity for both wolf and lynx. However, due to the future spread of settlements, this positive impact might be locally limited. Therefore, to realise the potential conservation opportunities resulting from on-going land use changes, adequate orientation of spatial planning towards habitat connectivity is crucial.

Keywords: land use scenarios; large mammals; habitat connectivity; land abandonment; settlement development; the Carpathians (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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