Proportional Variation of Potential Groundwater Recharge as a Result of Climate Change and Land-Use: A Study Case in Mexico

Jesús Guerrero-Morales, Carlos R. Fonseca, Miguel A. Goméz-Albores, María Laura Sampedro-Rosas and Sonia Emilia Silva-Gómez
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Jesús Guerrero-Morales: Centro de Ciencias de Desarrollo Regional, Universidad Autónoma de Guerrero, Acapulco 39640, Mexico
Carlos R. Fonseca: Instituto Interamericano de Tecnología y Ciencias del Agua, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Toluca 50100, Mexico
Miguel A. Goméz-Albores: Instituto Interamericano de Tecnología y Ciencias del Agua, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Toluca 50100, Mexico
María Laura Sampedro-Rosas: Centro de Ciencias de Desarrollo Regional, Universidad Autónoma de Guerrero, Acapulco 39640, Mexico
Sonia Emilia Silva-Gómez: Posgrado en Ciencias Ambientales, Instituto de Ciencias, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, Puebla 72570, Mexico

Land, 2020, vol. 9, issue 10, 1-22

Abstract: This work proposes a methodology whereby the selection of hydrologic and land-use cover change (LUCC) models allows an assessment of the proportional variation in potential groundwater recharge (PGR) due to both land-use cover change (LUCC) and some climate change scenarios for 2050. The simulation of PGR was made through a distributed model, based on empirical methods and the forecasting of LUCC stemming from a supervised classification with remote sensing techniques, both inside a Geographic Information System. Once the supervised classification was made, a Markov-based model was developed to predict LUCC to 2050. The method was applied in Acapulco, an important tourism center for Mexico. From 1986 to 2017, the urban area increased 5%, and by 2050 was predicted to cover 16%. In this period, a loss of 7 million m 3 of PGR was assumed to be caused by the estimated LUCC. From 2017 to 2050, this loss is expected to increase between 73 and 273 million m 3 depending on the considered climate change scenario, which is the equivalent amount necessary for satisfying the water needs of 6 million inhabitants. Therefore, modeling the variation in groundwater recharge can be an important tool for identifying water vulnerability, through both climate and land-use change.

Keywords: land-use change; potential groundwater recharge; climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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