A Review of Driving Factors, Scenarios, and Topics in Urban Land Change Models

Youjung Kim, Galen Newman and Burak Güneralp
Additional contact information
Youjung Kim: Department of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA
Galen Newman: Department of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA
Burak Güneralp: Department of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA

Land, 2020, vol. 9, issue 8, 1-22

Abstract: Due to the increase in future uncertainty caused by rapid environmental, societal, and technological change, exploring multiple scenarios has become increasingly important in urban planning. Land Change Modeling (LCM) enables planners to have the ability to mold uncertain future land changes into more determined conditions via scenarios. This paper reviews the literature on urban LCM and identifies driving factors, scenario themes/types, and topics. The results show that: (1) in total, 113 driving factors have been used in previous LCM studies including natural, built environment, and socio-economic factors, and this number ranges from three to twenty-one variables per model; (2) typical scenario themes include “environmental protection” and “compact development”; and (3) LCM topics are primarily growth prediction and prediction tools, and the rest are growth-related impact studies. The nature and number of driving factors vary across models and sites, and drivers are heavily determined by both urban context and theoretical framework.

Keywords: urban land change; land change model; driving factors; uncertainty; scenarios; scenario development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/9/8/246/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/9/8/246/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:9:y:2020:i:8:p:246-:d:390326

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().