Multiple-Trigger Catastrophe Bond Pricing Model and Its Simulation Using Numerical Methods

Riza Andrian Ibrahim, Sukono and Herlina Napitupulu
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Riza Andrian Ibrahim: Master of Mathematics Study Program, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Sumedang 45363, Indonesia
Sukono: Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Sumedang 45363, Indonesia
Herlina Napitupulu: Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Sumedang 45363, Indonesia

Mathematics, 2022, vol. 10, issue 9, 1-17

Abstract: Investor interest in single-trigger catastrophe bonds (STCB) has the potential to decline in the future. It is triggered by the increasing trend of global catastrophe loss and intensity every year, which increases the probability that a claim of STCB will occur. To increase investor interest again, the issuance of multiple-trigger catastrophe bonds (MTCB) can be one solution. However, to issue MTCB, its pricing is more complex because it involves more factors than STCB. Therefore, this study aims to design a simple MTCB pricing model. The claim trigger indices used are actual loss and fatality. Then, a nonhomogeneous compound Poisson process is used to model actual losses and fatalities aggregate to consider catastrophe intensity. In addition, this study proposes numerical methods, namely the continuous distribution approximation method and the Nuel recursive method, to facilitate the application of the model. Finally, an analysis of the effect of catastrophe intensity and other factors on MTCB prices is also presented. This study is expected to help special-purpose vehicles as MTCB issuers in MTCB pricing.

Keywords: multiple-trigger catastrophe bonds; numerical methods; continuous distribution approximation method; Nuel recursive method; nonhomogeneous compound Poisson process (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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