Considering Random Factors in Modeling Complex Microeconomic Systems

Oksana Hoshovska, Zhanna Poplavska, Natalia Kryvinska and Natalia Horbal
Additional contact information
Oksana Hoshovska: Institute of Administration and Postgraduate Education, Department of Theoretical and Applied Economics, Lviv Polytechnic National University, 79013 Lviv, Ukraine
Zhanna Poplavska: Institute of Administration and Postgraduate Education, Department of Theoretical and Applied Economics, Lviv Polytechnic National University, 79013 Lviv, Ukraine
Natalia Kryvinska: Department of e-Business, Faculty of Business, Economics and Statistics, University of Vienna, 1010 Wien, Austria
Natalia Horbal: Institute of Economics and Management, Department of Foreign Trade and Customs, Lviv Polytechnic National University, 79013 Lviv, Ukraine

Mathematics, 2020, vol. 8, issue 8, 1-18

Abstract: Within the framework of a model describing real-functioning association of three enterprises, numerical calculations of economic dynamics parameters considering fluctuating market demand for the goods were performed. A methodology was suggested for approximated consideration of both seasonal and random demand fluctuations at the market of textile garments; the main steps of the suggested methodology were described. The main exogenous random factors within this model include, as stated above, the volume of market demand for the goods produced by the enterprises of the group. The basic volume of market demand is considered at the average actual level according to the results of the enterprises’ analysis, and additionally we take into account the influence of non-price factors, such as random changes in the consumers’ tastes, consumers’ income, and other random factors on the market demand. By volume of market demand, we consider the total amount of goods produced by the enterprises of the group that all consumers are willing and able to purchase at a specific price in a marketplace. The calculations were made based on actual values of external economic parameters, such as labor cost, product prices, etc. Influence of the market demand fluctuations on the companies’ activity has been illustrated both numerically and graphically, allowing the analysis of the impact of exogenous parameters on the companies output and profits. The suggested approach creates a basis for further analysis of the impact of random factors of a similar nature, i.e., stochastic shocks related to the level of interest rates, shifts and turnabouts in the social environment, as well as the market transformations due to annual/seasonal epidemics.

Keywords: economic modeling; seasonal fluctuations; random factors; synergy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/8/8/1206/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/8/8/1206/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:8:y:2020:i:8:p:1206-:d:387895

Access Statistics for this article

Mathematics is currently edited by Ms. Emma He

More articles in Mathematics from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().