Mathematical Modeling and Optimal Control of the Hand Foot Mouth Disease Affected by Regional Residency in Thailand

Napasool Wongvanich, I-Ming Tang, Marc-Antoine Dubois and Puntani Pongsumpun
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Napasool Wongvanich: Department of Instrumentation and Control Engineering, School of Engineering, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok 10520, Thailand
I-Ming Tang: Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand
Marc-Antoine Dubois: CREATE 132 Route du Havre de la Vanlee, 50270 Bricqueville-sur-Mer, France
Puntani Pongsumpun: Department of Mathematics, School of Science, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok 10520, Thailand

Mathematics, 2021, vol. 9, issue 22, 1-30

Abstract: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a virulent disease most commonly found in East and Southeast Asia. Symptoms include ulcers or sores, inside or around the mouth. In this research, we formulate the dynamic model of HFMD by using the SEIQR model. We separated the infection episodes where there is a higher outbreak and a lower outbreak of the disease associated with regional residency, with the higher level of outbreak occurring in the urban region, and a lower outbreak level occurring in the rural region. We developed two different optimal control programs for the types of outbreaks. Optimal Control Policy 1 (OPC1) is limited to the use of treatment only, whereas Optimal Control Policy 2 (OPC2) includes vaccination along with the treatment. The Pontryagin’s maximum principle is used to establish the necessary and optimal conditions for the two policies. Numerical solutions are presented along with numerical sensitivity analyses of the required control efforts needed as the control parameters are changed. Results show that the time t m a x required for the optimal control effort to stay at the maximum amount u m a x exhibits an intrinsic logarithmic relationship with respect to the control parameters.

Keywords: hand foot mouth disease; optimal control; epidemiological control; regional residency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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