The Importance of Betting Early

Alessandro Innocenti, Tommaso Nannicini and Roberto Ricciuti
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Alessandro Innocenti: Department of Social, Political and Cognitive Sciences, LabSi & Befinlab, University of Siena, 53100 Siena, Italy

Risks, 2021, vol. 9, issue 4, 1-15

Abstract: We evaluate the impact of timing on decision outcomes when both the timing and the relevant decision are chosen under uncertainty. Sports betting provides the testing ground, as we exploit an original dataset containing more than one million online bets on games of the Italian Major Soccer League. We find that individuals perform systematically better when they place their bets farther away from the game day. The better performance of early bettors holds controlling for (time-invariant) unobservable ability, learning during the season, and timing of the odds. We attribute this result to the increase of noisy information on game day, which hampers the capacity of late (non-professional) bettors to use very simple prediction methods, such as team rankings or last game results. We also find that more successful bettors tend to bet in advance, focus on a smaller set of events, and prefer games associated with smaller betting odds.

Keywords: sports betting; decision timing; information overload; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C G0 G1 G2 G3 K2 M2 M4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Related works:
Working Paper: The Importance of Betting Early (2013)
Working Paper: The Importance of Betting Early (2012)
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