Agricultural Drought Risk Evaluation Based on an Optimized Comprehensive Index System

Menghua Deng, Junfei Chen, Jing Huang and Wenjuan Niu
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Menghua Deng: Institute of Management Science, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Junfei Chen: Institute of Management Science, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Jing Huang: Institute of Management Science, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Wenjuan Niu: Institute of Management Science, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 10, 1-22

Abstract: In this study, a new optimized comprehensive drought index system (OCDIS) was developed based on pressure-state-response (PSR) and random forest (RF). Then the pressure, state, response, and integrated agricultural drought risk were evaluated according to the synthetic-weight variable fuzzy set (SW-VFS) model. Finally, the countermeasures in terms of pressure, state, and response were discussed. The proposed index has been implemented in Qujing, Yunnan Province, China. The results showed that of the 10 indices included in the OCDIS, the four most important indices for agricultural drought risk management are reservoir storage capacity, precipitation anomaly percentage, soil moisture, and per capita annual income. The pressure risk and response risk of Malong are relatively higher than other counties. The integrated results indicated that most counties of Quijng have moderate drought risk. The assessment results are consistent with the actual situation of Qujing. The proposed model provides a scientific and objective way to develop the risk index system of agricultural drought. This study can potentially assist government agencies with information on the most important drought impacts and provide the basis for science-informed decision-making.

Keywords: agricultural drought risk (ADR); pressure-state-response (PSR); random forest (RF); optimized comprehensive drought index system (OCDIS); variable fuzzy sets (VFS) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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