Can Next-Generation Vehicles Sustainably Survive in the Automobile Market? Evidence from Ex-Ante Market Simulation and Segmentation

Jungwoo Shin, Taehoon Lim, Moo Yeon Kim and Jae Young Choi
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Jungwoo Shin: Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering, Kyung Hee University, 1732 Deogyeong-daero, Giheung-gu, Yongin, Gyeonggi 17104, Korea
Taehoon Lim: Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, 301 East Dean Keeton Street, C1700, Austin, TX 78712, USA
Moo Yeon Kim: Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, 301 East Dean Keeton Street, C1700, Austin, TX 78712, USA
Jae Young Choi: Graduate School of Technology & Innovation Management, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-ro, Seongdong-gu, Seoul 04763, Korea

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 3, 1-16

Abstract: Introduced autonomous and connected vehicles equipped with emerging technologies are expected to change the automotive market. In this study, using stated preference (SP) data collected from choice experiments conducted in Korea with a mixed multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model (MDCEV), we analyzed how the advent of next-generation of vehicles with advanced vehicle technologies would affect consumer vehicle choices and usage patterns. Additionally, ex-ante market simulations and market segmentation analyses were conducted to provide specific management strategies for next-generation vehicles. The results showed that consumer preference structures of conventional and alternative fuel types primarily differed depending on whether they were drivers or non-drivers. Additionally, although the introduction of electric vehicles to the automobile market is expected to negatively affect the choice probability and mileage of other vehicles, it could have a positive influence on the probability of purchasing an existing conventional vehicle if advanced vehicle technologies are available.

Keywords: advanced vehicle technologies; alternative fuel vehicles; market segmentation; multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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