The Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Modeling Research of Inter-Provincial Migration in China

Xiaomei Fan, Hongguang Liu, Zimeng Zhang and Jie Zhang
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Xiaomei Fan: School of Geographic Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Hongguang Liu: College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
Zimeng Zhang: College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
Jie Zhang: College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 3, 1-14

Abstract: The national census data during 1995 and 2000 and during 2005 and 2010 are selected in this paper to make an analysis of the spatio-temporal characteristics of the inter-provincial population migration in China. In addition, the general regression model, the extension regression model considering the historical dependent variable and the spatial lag model are established based on the gravity model to make the regression model on China’s inter-provincial population migration over two periods of time. The results show that: (1) the inter-provincial population migration increases rapidly in size with strong geographical proximity; (2) China’s inter-provincial population migration is still in the primary stage of the general process of population migration. In other words, the inter-provincial population emigration and immigration levels have increased greatly with the economic development; (3) Statistically, the inter-provincial population migration is negatively correlated with the level of economic development in the emigrant place and the migration distance and positively correlated with the level of economic development in the immigrant place and the population scale in the emigrant and immigrant places; and (4) The spatio-temporal factor is an important explanatory variable of population migration. The introduction of the historical dependent variable and the spatial lag factor can improve the regression effect of the gravity model greatly, and the historical variable and the spatial factor have strong explanatory power for the inter-provincial population migration.

Keywords: migration; China; modeling; gravity model; spatial lag model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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