Prospect on China’s Urban System by 2020: Evidence from the Prediction Based on Internal Migration Network

Xin Lao, Tiyan Shen and Hengyu Gu
Additional contact information
Xin Lao: School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
Tiyan Shen: School of Government, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Hengyu Gu: School of Government, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 3, 1-21

Abstract: China’s rapid urbanization has aroused substantial attention all over the world. Though there exists a strong connection between urban system and intercity migration, an overall prediction of China’s urban population of all cities based on migration network has rarely been conducted. This study proposes an extended NEG (New Economic Geography) model to simulate China’s urban system evolution with actual data and further predicts the future development of China’s urban system under three different urbanization scenarios. We discover that China’s future development trend is centralized urbanization dominated by large cities with a population of above 1 million. This prediction result is of great significance to provide scientific evidence for China’s population flow management and new-type urbanization planning.

Keywords: migration network; urban system evolution; New Economic Geography theory; simulation and prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/3/654/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/3/654/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:3:p:654-:d:134065

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().