An Electricity Price Forecasting Model by Hybrid Structured Deep Neural Networks

Ping-Huan Kuo and Chiou-Jye Huang
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Ping-Huan Kuo: Computer and Intelligent Robot Program for Bachelor Degree, National Pingtung University, Pingtung 90004, Taiwan
Chiou-Jye Huang: School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 4, 1-17

Abstract: Electricity price is a key influencer in the electricity market. Electricity market trades by each participant are based on electricity price. The electricity price adjusted with the change in supply and demand relationship can reflect the real value of electricity in the transaction process. However, for the power generating party, bidding strategy determines the level of profit, and the accurate prediction of electricity price could make it possible to determine a more accurate bidding price. This cannot only reduce transaction risk, but also seize opportunities in the electricity market. In order to effectively estimate electricity price, this paper proposes an electricity price forecasting system based on the combination of 2 deep neural networks, the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM). In order to compare the overall performance of each algorithm, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root-Mean-Square error (RMSE) evaluating measures were applied in the experiments of this paper. Experiment results show that compared with other traditional machine learning methods, the prediction performance of the estimating model proposed in this paper is proven to be the best. By combining the CNN and LSTM models, the feasibility and practicality of electricity price prediction is also confirmed in this paper.

Keywords: electricity price forecasting; hybrid structured model; convolutional neural network; long short term memory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (38)

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