Monthly Load Forecasting Based on Economic Data by Decomposition Integration Theory

Da Liu, Kun Sun, Han Huang and Pingzhou Tang
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Da Liu: Economics and Management School, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China
Kun Sun: Economics and Management School, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China
Han Huang: Economics and Management School, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China
Pingzhou Tang: Economics and Management School, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 9, 1-22

Abstract: Accurate load forecasting can help alleviate the impact of renewable-energy access to the network, facilitate the power plants to arrange unit maintenance and encourage the power broker companies to develop a reasonable quotation plan. However, the traditional prediction methods are insufficient for the analysis of load sequence fluctuations. The economic variables are not introduced into the input variable selection and the redundant information interferes with the final prediction results. In this paper, a set of the ensemble empirical mode is used to decompose the electricity consumption sequence. Appropriate economic variables are as selected as model input for each decomposition sequence to model separately according to its characteristics. Then the models are constructed by selecting the optimal parameters in the random forest. Finally, the result of the component prediction is reconstituted. Compared with random forest, support vector machine and seasonal naïve method, the example results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is better than that of the contrast models. The validity and feasibility of the method in the monthly load forecasting is verified.

Keywords: ensemble empirical mode decomposition; random forest; support vector machine; monthly load forecasting; economic influence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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