Simulation of Spatiotemporal Land Use Changes for Integrated Model of Socioeconomic and Ecological Processes in China

Honglei Jiang, Xia Xu, Mengxi Guan, Lingfei Wang, Yongmei Huang and Yinghui Liu
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Honglei Jiang: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Xia Xu: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Mengxi Guan: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Lingfei Wang: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Yongmei Huang: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Yinghui Liu: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 13, 1-18

Abstract: Land use/land cover changes (LULCC) have been affected by ecological processes as well as socioeconomic and human activities, resulting in several environmental problems. The study of the human–environment system combined with land use/land cover dynamics has received considerable attention in recent decades. We aimed to provide an integrated model that couples land use, socioeconomic influences, and ecosystem processes to explore the future dynamics of land use under two scenarios in China. Under Scenario A, the yield of grain continues to increase, and under Scenario B, the yield of grain remains constant. This study created a LULCC model by integrating a simple global socioeconomic model, a Terrestrial ecosystem simulator (TESim), and a land use allocation model. The results were analyzed by comparing spatiotemporal differences under predicted land use conditions in the two alternative scenarios. The simulation results showed patterns that varied between the two scenarios. In Scenario A, grassland will expand in the future and a large reduction in cropland will be observed. In Scenario B, the augmented expansion of cropland and a drastic shrinkage of forest area will be the main land use conversion features. Scenario A is more promising because more land is preserved for ecological restoration and urbanization, which is in line with China’s Grain for Green Program. Economic development should be based on ecological protection. The results are expected to add insight to sustainable land use development and regional natural resource management in China.

Keywords: sustainability; socioeconomic influence; ecosystem processes; land use change model; scenario simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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