Development of a Model for Predicting Probabilistic Life-Cycle Cost for the Early Stage of Public-Office Construction

Zhengxun Jin, Jonghyeob Kim, Chang-taek Hyun and Sangwon Han
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Zhengxun Jin: Department of Architectural Engineering, University of Seoul, Seoul 02504, Korea
Jonghyeob Kim: Research and Development Center, PMPgM Co., Ltd., Seoul 02504, Korea
Chang-taek Hyun: Department of Architectural Engineering, University of Seoul, Seoul 02504, Korea
Sangwon Han: Department of Architectural Engineering, University of Seoul, Seoul 02504, Korea

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 14, 1-18

Abstract: Decisions made in the early stages of construction projects significantly influence the costs incurred in subsequent stages. Therefore, such decisions must be based on the life-cycle cost (LCC), which includes the maintenance, repair, and replacement (MRR) costs in addition to construction costs. Furthermore, as uncertainty is inherent during the early stages, it must be considered in making predictions of the LCC more probabilistic. This study proposes a probabilistic LCC prediction model developed by applying the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to an LCC prediction model based on case-based reasoning (CBR) to support the decision-making process in the early stages of construction projects. The model was developed in two phases: first, two LCC prediction models were constructed using CBR and multiple-regression analysis. Through k-fold validation, one model with superior prediction performance was selected; second, a probabilistic LCC model was developed by applying the MCS to the selected model. The probabilistic LCC prediction model proposed in this study can generate probabilistic prediction results that consider the uncertainty of information available at the early stages of a project. Thus, it can enhance reliability in actual situations and be more useful for clients who support both construction and MRR costs, such as those in the public sector.

Keywords: cost prediction; probabilistic model; early stage; life-cycle cost; case-based reasoning; Monte Carlo simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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