China’s Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend

Lin Ma, Manhua Wu, Xiujuan Tian, Guanheng Zheng, Qinchuan Du and Tian Wu
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Lin Ma: School of Banking & Finance, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China
Manhua Wu: School of Banking & Finance, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China
Xiujuan Tian: School of Banking & Finance, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China
Guanheng Zheng: State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Qinchuan Du: Academy of Macroeconomic Research, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing 100038, China
Tian Wu: NCMIS, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 14, 1-26

Abstract: The growth of vehicle ownership not only brings opportunity for the economy, but also brings environment and transport problems, which is not good for sustainable transportation. It is of great significance to build supporting infrastructure and other services based on accurate forecasts of vehicle ownership in various provinces because of the variance of economic development stages, the carrying capacity of resources, and different degrees of transport planning in each province. We used the Gompertz model in order to predict China’s provincial vehicle ownership from 2018 to 2050. Considering the impact of the population structure, we summed up the growth rate of GDP per labor, the growth rate of population and the growth rate of employment rate to get the growth rate of GDP and then the GDP per capita of each province. We found that the vehicle ownership in each province will grow rapidly in the next 30 years; however, the change in the ranking of vehicle ownership among provinces varies. The ranking of some provinces with high or middle ranking now will decline in the following years, especially Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Xinjiang. While the ranking of some provinces that locates in the middle and low ranking now will increase, such as Chongqing, Hubei, Anhui, Sichuan, Heilongjiang, Jiangxi, Hunan and Guangxi. We also investigate the reasons that affect the trend in each province and we find that the suitable vehicle growth pattern of each province, the stage of economic development and government policy, which are related to the growth rate of GDP per labor, employment rate, and GDP per capita, can affect vehicle ownership in the future.

Keywords: vehicle ownership forecast; Gompertz model; GDP per capita; trends comparison; cause analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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